Here is the simulation of the queuing system for you.
I bet you wont found a better simulation than this for free.
All you need to do is to send me an email @ abhisemail@gmail.com and I will share it with you.
Here is the link:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pfPq27zjVWvRcgY1aelmZKQ&hl=en
But I haven't shared it yet. So send me an email if you want it.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Advanced excel tutorial
Linking worksheets
You may want to use the value from a cell in another worksheet within the same workbook in a formula. For example, the value of cell A1 in the current worksheet and cell A2 in the second worksheet can be added using the format "sheetname!celladdress". The formula for this example would be "=A1+Sheet2!A2" where the value of cell A1 in the current worksheet is added to the value of cell A2 in the worksheet named "Sheet2".
Few Links:
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/advancedexce/Advanced_Topics_in_Excel_Spreadsheets.htm
http://www.beyondtechnology.com/tips.shtml
Creating a Drop Down List in Excel 2007
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/datamanagementinexcel/qt/20071113_drpdwn.htm
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/datamanagementinexcel/qt/080504dropdown2.htm
Macro tutorial
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/advancedexcel/ss/excel_macro.htm
vlookup
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/excelfunctions/ss/vlookup.htm
hlookup
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/excelfunctions/ss/hlookup.htm
Goalseek
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/advancedexcel/qt/080802goal_seek.htm
Database
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/datamanagementinexcel/ss/080608_database.htm
Removing duplicate records
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/excel2007tips/qt/data_duplicates.htm
Advanced filter
http://spreadsheets.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ/Ya&sdn=spreadsheets&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.docnmail.com%2FExcelFilter%2Ffilter4.htm
Import text files
http://spreadsheets.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ/Ya&sdn=spreadsheets&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.docnmail.com%2FExcelFilter%2Ffilter4.htm
Pivot table
http://video.about.com/spreadsheets/Create-Excel-Pivot-Tables.htm
This will give you an idea of using vb script in excel
http://spreadsheets.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ/Ya&sdn=spreadsheets&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.contextures.com%2FxlUserForm01.html
You may want to use the value from a cell in another worksheet within the same workbook in a formula. For example, the value of cell A1 in the current worksheet and cell A2 in the second worksheet can be added using the format "sheetname!celladdress". The formula for this example would be "=A1+Sheet2!A2" where the value of cell A1 in the current worksheet is added to the value of cell A2 in the worksheet named "Sheet2".
Few Links:
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/advancedexce/Advanced_Topics_in_Excel_Spreadsheets.htm
http://www.beyondtechnology.com/tips.shtml
Creating a Drop Down List in Excel 2007
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/datamanagementinexcel/qt/20071113_drpdwn.htm
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/datamanagementinexcel/qt/080504dropdown2.htm
Macro tutorial
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/advancedexcel/ss/excel_macro.htm
vlookup
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/excelfunctions/ss/vlookup.htm
hlookup
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/excelfunctions/ss/hlookup.htm
Goalseek
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/advancedexcel/qt/080802goal_seek.htm
Database
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/datamanagementinexcel/ss/080608_database.htm
Removing duplicate records
http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/excel2007tips/qt/data_duplicates.htm
Advanced filter
http://spreadsheets.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ/Ya&sdn=spreadsheets&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.docnmail.com%2FExcelFilter%2Ffilter4.htm
Import text files
http://spreadsheets.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ/Ya&sdn=spreadsheets&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.docnmail.com%2FExcelFilter%2Ffilter4.htm
Pivot table
http://video.about.com/spreadsheets/Create-Excel-Pivot-Tables.htm
This will give you an idea of using vb script in excel
http://spreadsheets.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ/Ya&sdn=spreadsheets&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.contextures.com%2FxlUserForm01.html
Devaluation of Thai Baht
Below is the chat transcript between me and one of my friend on the currency and banking crisis that happened in Thailand between 1997-99.
12:51 AM me: dekh liya tune apna portion?
koi problem to nahi hai na?
Sumit: hmmm dekha toh,elkin link nahi kar paa raha tha
so readin d entire ppt
kab tak online rahega?
12:52 AM me: almost puri rat
ruk main batata hu flow
jam
Sumit: ohhhk
12:53 AM me: dekh sabse pehle liberalization ke karan economy bahut open ho gaya...to pehle liberalization me kye kya hua ye bataya hai...
12:54 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: open hone ke karan aur interest rate jyada hone ke karan capital inflow hone laga
usme BIBF ka bhi bahut bara role tha...
12:55 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: bibf ka bahar me branches tha...wo bahar ke country se saste me loan leke thailand me loan deta tha higher interest rate pe...
uske karan hi mainly capital inflows ho raha tha
12:56 AM Sumit: hmmm bt C/A deficit was huge too? due to change in XR>?
BIBF: is Bahrain Institute of Banking and Finance
?
12:57 AM me: bangkok international banking facility
Sumit: :D ohhhk
12:58 AM me: jab capital inflow hota hai...to country grow karti hai...logo ka income badhta hai and import is a function of income...to import badhta hai...agar export nahi badegha proportionately to current act deficit hoga...
Sumit: ohhhhk
me: dusri bat export mainly japan ko kar rahe the...japan ki maa waise hi chudi hui thi 1990s...to export hurt ho raha tha
Sumit: ohhhhk
1:00 AM me: aur inflation bhi bash raha tha...kyunki mainly bahar ka paisa log real estate aur baki asset me laga rahe the...consumption demand bhi jyada tha...economy efficient nahi tha...supply ki gand lagi hui thi...kyuki paisa to sala asset kharidne me ja raha tha...is sab ke karan inflation bhi tha...
*badh
1:01 AM aur jo capital inflow ho raha tha wo mainly short term tha
u thr?
Sumit: hmmm
me: hot money jisko kehte hai
Sumit: samajh raha tha bhai...time lagta hai na
me: yahan tak thik hai?
1:02 AM Sumit: inflation is raised wen there is increased in money supply and velocity and output is not raised
but you sayin cap inflw hua toh consumption bada
consumpn bada toh IS curve toh lehta hai ki output bada
1:03 AM me: capital inflow se income badha...basically investment ho raha hai na...Y=C+I+G+X-M
yes
when income increases or output increases...C also increases...
Sumit: hmmm toh output bada na be...den hw can we day inflation was couased due to increased cap inflw?
me: as it is a function of Y
Sumit: hmmm
1:04 AM me: kab tak sawal hai
ek stage ke bad jab sab employed ho jayenge to supply nahi badhega
Sumit: hmm ye sahi hai
1:05 AM den inflation aayega
me: lekin demand to hai hi due to rising income
yes
Sumit: hmmm sahi
toh hot money aa raha tha aage...
1:06 AM me: haan to hot money aur japan ke gand lagne ke karan inflation aur current account deficit badh gaya tha
1995 me 8% deficit tha
Sumit: hmmm
1:07 AM me: aur inflation bhi us ke comparision me high tha
Sumit: hmmm
me: agar apne desh me jyada mehgayi hogi to log aur import karenge...kyunki bahar sasta hai...
usse aur current account deficit hoga
Sumit: hmmm
1:08 AM me: ye fixed exchange rate ke ek aur panga hai
Sumit: sahi jha, u gud in teaching :)
1:09 AM Toh C/A deficit aur badd gaya (Inflation, Japan..sab badad diye)
me: sarkar bhi ek dekh rahi thi...usne kuch thik karne ka try kiya by taking some measures
Sumit: Expot chuda, import utha (C/A Deficit utha)
hmmm
den..
1995 mein lya kuch monetary measures
1:10 AM me: haan 95 me deficit 5 se 8 percent ho gaya tha
Sumit: of GDP?
me: haan
c/a deficit = 8% of gdp
Sumit: ohhhk so ab?
1:11 AM me: un measures ka kuch asar nahi hua...basically money supply ko kam karna chahti thi sarkar...liquidity aur credit ko bhi kam kar na chahti thi...
par monetary policy effective nahi hoti if fixed exchange rate and perfect capital mobility is there
Sumit: oohhhk
1:13 AM me: sarkar ne loan deposit ratio kam kar diya...par usse usi bank ko phadak padega jisko deposit nahi mil raha...jiske customers kam hai...pade bank me to paisa deposit hoga hi...no one holds cash...
Sumit: I know y, coz of imp trinity :D
1:15 AM me: dusri bat yeh hai ki...usually contractionary monetary policy me interest rate badhate hai
yahan interest rate to jyada tha hi
paisa mainly bahar se aa raha tha
Sumit: ohhhk
me: to basically sarkar kuch kar nahi payi
1:16 AM Sumit: ohhhk
me: ab jab current account deficit bahut ho jata hai...to logo ko lagta hai ki currency overvalued hai...
kyunki usse import sasta padta hai
Sumit: ohhhk speculation
1:18 AM kahan gaye? sutta maarne?
1:19 AM me: ek min
haan speculative attack
1:20 AM Sumit: den..
me: are sonu ko mail nahi mila tha
wo bhej raha tha
1:21 AM Sumit: ohhk
me: thailand ki sarkar ne currency defend karne ki koshish ki pehle
1:22 AM speculative attack me log baht ke badle apni currency mangte hai
Sumit: ohhk
me: jisse baht jyada ho jyada hai market me aur uski value kam
1:23 AM Sumit: ohhhk
me: uskko bachane ke liye central bank ko baht kharidna hoga foreign exchange deke
par kab tak
Sumit: ohhk forex reserve ki lagne lagi
me: tabhi tak jab tak uske pas foreign exchange hai
Sumit: so finally FERR toota?
me: haan pura forex deplete ho gaya
1:24 AM Sumit: Fixed exchange rate regime
me: uske bad currency float karna pada
haan
Sumit: gud :)
me: ye hua 2nd july ko
Sumit: 1997?
me: yes
Sumit: abe bankg or nonbankg outflowa ka kya funda hua tha?
1:25 AM me: ek bar jab baht apni asli aukat pe aa gaya logo ne paisa nikalna band kar diya
Sumit: ohhk
me: jo paisa nikal raha tha wo mainly short term loan me diya paisa tha
jinhone fdi kiya tha wo withdraw nahi kar rahe tha
*the
fdi ya portfolio
Sumit: ohhk
1:26 AM me: jo paisa BIBF ke jariye aya tha wahi nikal raha tha
wo bank category wala paisa tha
Sumit: ohhhk
me: jo commercial banks aur bibf ne bahar se loan leke thailand me loan diya tha
ok?
Sumit: hmmm
1:27 AM toh iska matlab dono kind of flows the.....banking (BIBF) ke zariye n Non banking portfolio ke zariye
lattter was v less
me: dekh jo capital inflow hota hai wo bahut tarike ka hota hai
1:28 AM main samjhata hu
Sumit: :) ohhhk
smjha :)
me: fdi ka matlab ho ta us country ke company ka 10% se jyada share kharidna
portfolio bhi equity investment hota hai
Sumit: ohhk
ohhk
me: ye sab non banking category me ata hai
isme bank involve nahi
Sumit: ohhhhk
hmmm
1:29 AM me: bank kab involve hota jab company loan leti hai
debt
Sumit: hmmm
me: jo commercial banks the unki subsidiary thi foreign me
wo sale wahan se paisa lete the aur yahan pe loan de dete the
Sumit: hmmm so...
ohhhk
1:30 AM me: to ye bank category ka capital flow hua
Sumit: hmm hua
me: ab jo fdi karega wo company ko chudne nahi dega
Sumit: ohhhk
me: wo aur capital layega comapny ko atleat bachane ke liye
wo owner hai
Sumit: hmmm
me: to crisis ke dauran ye log paisa nahi nikal rahe the
1:31 AM Sumit: ohhhk
bankg wale nikaal rahe the
?
me: paisa wo nikal rahe the jinhone ya to loan diya tha ya jinka chota stake tha company me
Sumit: hmmm
1:32 AM me: yani loan wale aur portfolio investment karne wale...
portfolio investment matlab jo share market me invest karte hai
Sumit: ohhhk
me: jaise india se paisa nikal rahe hai
FFI
FII
1:33 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: lekin chuki singapore aur hongko wale share market paisa laga bhi rahe the portfolio investment utna affect nahi hua tha
net me
kuch log gire hue share price ka fayda bhi uthana chahte hai
ye singapore aur hongkong wale the
Sumit: ohhhk
1:34 AM me: any doubts?
puch le
Sumit: nahi ab tak jitna mujhe samajh aaya non bankg n bankg ko leke is dat ki...
bankg hua bank related flow: which is generally loans
1:35 AM non bankg hua invested by foreigners direclty thru equity investment
rt?
me: haan
Sumit: equity investment was nt hit a lot coz it was bothways. bankg was hit more severely?
outflows mostly
1:36 AM n bankg mein mostly wo hot money wale log the
me: lekin ye laon me lafda kya hai...ki bank jo loan de rahi thi wo thai logo ke deposit se nahi tha...bank khud bahar loan le rahi thi aur yahan comapnies ko loan de rahi thi...
1:37 AM Sumit: who wanted to earn a lot out of high interest being offered by Thai banks (inhi logon se loan le rahi thi? )
me: dekh man le ki ek thai bank hai
uska ek branch india me hai
Sumit: k
me: india me interest rate hai loan ka 5%
aur thailand me 10%
1:38 AM Sumit: ohhhk so main ind mein loan leke usko bhej diya
me: to india wala branch kya karega ki indian bank loan le lega..
Sumit: hmm
me: aur usi paisa ko thailand ke logo ko loan pe de dega
Sumit: hmmm
me: ab india se loan mil raha tha wo short term tha
1:39 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: aur jo loan thailand me de rahi thi wo long term tha
Sumit: ohhhk
me: to ab jab indian bank loan chukane ko bol rahi thi...to capital outflow ho raha tha...
ye banking ctegory ka outflow hua
1:40 AM jab loan le ke paisa aya to inflow jab loan chukane ke liye paisa gaya to outflow
thik hai?
Sumit: hmmm
me: banking is alright now?
Sumit: samajh gaya
hmm
1:41 AM non banking toh direct equity investment ho gaya
me: non banking hota hai fdi, portfolio investment, supplier credit, trade credit etc
Sumit: okies
me: nahi trade credit aur ye sab bhi hota hai
Sumit: chalo ab aage badte hain..
ohhhk
me: jo thai log bahar kar kar rahe hai wo jo paisa bhej rahe hai wo bhi hoga
matlab non resident thai accounts
1:42 AM *reh
Sumit: 'hmmm
me: to mainly jo capital outflow ho raha tha wo banking tha
thik hai
Sumit: hmm thik hai
1:43 AM den FERR toot gaya
n eco stabilise kaise hui?
1:44 AM NPAs ko hataya gaya tha kuch toh
me: jab FERR nahi raha...aur log paisa nikalte gaye...to currency bhi girne lagi...is tarike currency reached its real value
Sumit: ohhk
me: jo actually uska exchange rate hona chahiye wo ho gay
it stabilised
Sumit: ohhk
me: sarkar ne bhi kuch measures liye
1:45 AM Sumit: bas khattam crisis? aur kuch bhi jaanna hai?
me: restructuring kiya financial sector...bail out kiya...
kahan gaye?
1:47 AM Sumit: hmm
1:48 AM ab iske baad toh eco analysis hi hai
?
me: haan
usme ja
fdi wale me ja
Sumit: ohhk
me: dekh export performance sab se imp factor aa raha hai usme
1:49 AM Sumit: hmmm
- ka sig kya hota tha?
1:50 AM me: aisa isliye hota hai usually agar koi company kisi bahar ke company me invest karti hai...bada stake kharidti hai...to uska main reason hota hai cheap labour,capital etc ka fayda uthana
dusre country me saste me produce karke apne country me import karna
Sumit: ohhhk
1:51 AM me: to export performance ek tarike se signal hota hai fdi ka
Sumit: exp value kya hua?
hmmm
me: export value matlab jitna export kiya
1:52 AM usually export wahi hota hai jahan se fdi ata hai
Sumit: ohhhk
me: to agar export nahi ho raha hai to fdi bhi nahi aa raha hai
Sumit: 3rd pt kya hai us slide mein?
me: kyunki fdi ka purpose hi hota hai dusre country me produe karna
at lower cost
1:53 AM Sumit: ohhk
me: chuki japan sabse major contributor tha fdi ka...to volatility against yen sabse imp factor hoga...as compared to other currencies...
1:54 AM dekh aaj main america me 100 rupees lagaya
that is say equal to 2 $
Sumit: k
me: us 2 $ pe mere ko 50 % return mil raha hai
Sumit: k
me: say 1 $ or 50 Rs
Sumit: hmm
1:55 AM me: ab $ gir gaya rs ke against
Sumit: oki
me: mere ko abhi bhi 2 $ aa raha hai
par uska rupee ke term me kam value hai
Sumit: oki
me: to volatility of currency affects foreign investment
Sumit: hmmm
1:56 AM me: any other thing in that slide?
Sumit: in dis case kya ho raha hai
ki jus volatity hai toh affect ho raha hai chk kar rahe hain
oi
oki*
1:57 AM me: dekh baht dollar ke sath pegged tha
ab dollar appreciate ho raha tha
Sumit: yeah
me: to baht bhi appreciate ho raha tha
Sumit: hmm bt nt in true sense
so overvalued ho gaya
so japan baht se deal nahi karna chahega
me: jab currency appreciate ho rahi hai to log aur invest karna chahenge...
1:58 AM Sumit: ohhk
me: nahi karna chahega
kyunki usko fayda hoga...agar aaj 5 baht mil raha jiska value 100 yen aur kal wahi 5 baht ka value 200 yen ho jata hai to main invest karna chahunga
1:59 AM lekin main aur chiz bhi dekhunga
Sumit: hmm
me: agar kal baht devalue ho gaya to
Sumit: hmmm
me: agar thailand ka foreign reserve deplete ho gay to
Sumit: ohhk
me: so an investor will think all that
Sumit: n dat is wat v r capturing thru dat variable?
me: to kis chiz ka kitna impact hai wo is econometric analysis se pata chalega
2:00 AM Sumit: oki
Port inv pe aa jate hain ab
me: usme ek facor foreign reseve bhi hai
Sumit: hmm
me: k
2:01 AM us analysis se pata chalta hai ki jo log stock market me invest kar rahe the unko sabse jyada thailand ke growth prospect se matlab tha
gdp growth rate
2:02 AM aur purane stock market performance se
Sumit: hmmm
bt usme tum Eco fundamental factors kyun likhe ho den?
me: aur sab se jyada chuki us wale invest kar rahe the...to baht ki dollar ke sath volatility bahut imp factor jo jata hai
2:03 AM baht appreciate karega to kam dollar milega
Sumit: these are groeth perfo indicators? (you used elec consumpn in last case)
me: depreciate karega to jyada dollar milega
isliye coefficient negative hai
Sumit: ek ek ek min
2:05 AM me: dono growth ke indicators hote hai
Sumit: baht apprec kiya toh jyada dollars US investors ko milega
me: u can use any
nahi kam dollar milega na
100 baht milna hai
2:06 AM pehle 1$ = 50 baht
so they will get 2$
now 1 $ = 25 baht
Sumit: ohh haan
me: so they will get 4 $
similarly the opposite
Sumit: ohhhk
2:07 AM hmm -ve kyun bol raha tha kyunki inv relationship hai?
2:08 AM me: yes
Sumit: bt yahan toh apan bas volatility bol rahe hain iske ye matlab thode hi hai ki..... When dollar increases baht increases means Baht per dollar volatitly)
2:09 AM me: see regression hamne 1998 tak ke data ko use karke kiya hai
1997 me floating ho gaya tha
Sumit: ohhk
me: to after 1997 that relation doesnt hold
Sumit: ohhk
2:10 AM me: to it will get reflected in regression
Sumit: k
me: is me aur kuch?
Sumit: 2nd pt?
2:11 AM me: yehi fayda hota hai regression karne ka
Sumit: The adequacy of foreign exchange reserves (in terms of import expenses) ...ye kaunsa var hai?
me: typically hame lagta hai ki foreign reserve har tarah ke invest ko affect karna chahiye
wo bhi barabar
par ye fdi me jyada significant hota hai
2:12 AM aisa regression show kar raha hai
foreign exchange reserve ko usually imports ke term me likhte hai
manle ki avg imp 100 $ hai sal ka country ka
aur reserve 1000$
2:13 AM to tu bolega ki reserve is sufficient for 10 months of import
aise hi express karte hai usually
Sumit: k
bt yaar koi variable toh denote kar raha hoga na? Forex ko
me: yes forex/import
2:14 AM see agar main sidha bolo ki mere pas 100$ forex hai to it doesnt make any sense
Sumit: 32 slide mein kahan hai wo?
me: agar ek din me main 100$ import kar raha hu to wo forex to ek din me khatam ho jayega
Sumit: arre wo samajh gaya jha bhai i thiink tu 33rd slide pe bol raha hai
2:15 AM me: are wo 32 slide me nahi hai kyunki wo top 5 factors me se nahi hai
Sumit: wait a sec....
2:16 AM 12 baje tak saath de do jab itna sahe ho toh :D
me: wahi to wo point bol raha hai
ki fdi ke liye wo bahut significant factor hai
but not fii
fii me uska koi role nahi hota
it is not among the top 5 imp factor that determines fii flow
k?
Sumit: dekho 32nd slide mein 2nd point is: The adequacy of foreign exchange reserves (in terms of import expenses) is not very meaningful to foreigners in the stock market as well as direct investment
ohhhk
sry
i wasnt gettin it
me: oh ok
2:17 AM Sumit: mujhe laga list ofvar exhaustive hai
chalo den 33rd ko
me: haan it means it is not an imp factor for both fdi and fii and hence not shown
k?
Sumit: hmm k
me: 33 now
Sumit: k\
me: isme kya batao bata?
Sumit: thik ha ye
2:18 AM swap rate bhul gaya, wo upar ke kisi slide mein tha ...
padd leta hun
me: swap rate net pe dekh ke thik se samjh le
2:19 AM Sumit: thnku hai :) ho jaayega
me: main bhi bahut ache se abhi nahi samjha paonga
derivative contract hota hai ek tarah ka
dekh le net pe?
Sumit: hmm dekh lunga
cho tum aaraam karo ab :)
me: thik hai
Sumit: samajh aa gaya poora PPT which mujeh nahi lag raha tha aayega :D
thnku
2:20 AM me: send the chat transcript to everyone for reference
Sumit: chalo den... ohhhk
me: so that everyone will be clear
k
Sumit: hmmm
me: tu bhej dega ya main bheju
gmail me store ho jata hai
Sumit: hmm bhej dunga
2:21 AM me: sonu ke mdi act pe bhej dena...usko mail mil nahi raha tha...i just sent the ppt on her mdi act
chal bye then
Sumit: oki bbye tc
12:51 AM me: dekh liya tune apna portion?
koi problem to nahi hai na?
Sumit: hmmm dekha toh,elkin link nahi kar paa raha tha
so readin d entire ppt
kab tak online rahega?
12:52 AM me: almost puri rat
ruk main batata hu flow
jam
Sumit: ohhhk
12:53 AM me: dekh sabse pehle liberalization ke karan economy bahut open ho gaya...to pehle liberalization me kye kya hua ye bataya hai...
12:54 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: open hone ke karan aur interest rate jyada hone ke karan capital inflow hone laga
usme BIBF ka bhi bahut bara role tha...
12:55 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: bibf ka bahar me branches tha...wo bahar ke country se saste me loan leke thailand me loan deta tha higher interest rate pe...
uske karan hi mainly capital inflows ho raha tha
12:56 AM Sumit: hmmm bt C/A deficit was huge too? due to change in XR>?
BIBF: is Bahrain Institute of Banking and Finance
?
12:57 AM me: bangkok international banking facility
Sumit: :D ohhhk
12:58 AM me: jab capital inflow hota hai...to country grow karti hai...logo ka income badhta hai and import is a function of income...to import badhta hai...agar export nahi badegha proportionately to current act deficit hoga...
Sumit: ohhhhk
me: dusri bat export mainly japan ko kar rahe the...japan ki maa waise hi chudi hui thi 1990s...to export hurt ho raha tha
Sumit: ohhhhk
1:00 AM me: aur inflation bhi bash raha tha...kyunki mainly bahar ka paisa log real estate aur baki asset me laga rahe the...consumption demand bhi jyada tha...economy efficient nahi tha...supply ki gand lagi hui thi...kyuki paisa to sala asset kharidne me ja raha tha...is sab ke karan inflation bhi tha...
*badh
1:01 AM aur jo capital inflow ho raha tha wo mainly short term tha
u thr?
Sumit: hmmm
me: hot money jisko kehte hai
Sumit: samajh raha tha bhai...time lagta hai na
me: yahan tak thik hai?
1:02 AM Sumit: inflation is raised wen there is increased in money supply and velocity and output is not raised
but you sayin cap inflw hua toh consumption bada
consumpn bada toh IS curve toh lehta hai ki output bada
1:03 AM me: capital inflow se income badha...basically investment ho raha hai na...Y=C+I+G+X-M
yes
when income increases or output increases...C also increases...
Sumit: hmmm toh output bada na be...den hw can we day inflation was couased due to increased cap inflw?
me: as it is a function of Y
Sumit: hmmm
1:04 AM me: kab tak sawal hai
ek stage ke bad jab sab employed ho jayenge to supply nahi badhega
Sumit: hmm ye sahi hai
1:05 AM den inflation aayega
me: lekin demand to hai hi due to rising income
yes
Sumit: hmmm sahi
toh hot money aa raha tha aage...
1:06 AM me: haan to hot money aur japan ke gand lagne ke karan inflation aur current account deficit badh gaya tha
1995 me 8% deficit tha
Sumit: hmmm
1:07 AM me: aur inflation bhi us ke comparision me high tha
Sumit: hmmm
me: agar apne desh me jyada mehgayi hogi to log aur import karenge...kyunki bahar sasta hai...
usse aur current account deficit hoga
Sumit: hmmm
1:08 AM me: ye fixed exchange rate ke ek aur panga hai
Sumit: sahi jha, u gud in teaching :)
1:09 AM Toh C/A deficit aur badd gaya (Inflation, Japan..sab badad diye)
me: sarkar bhi ek dekh rahi thi...usne kuch thik karne ka try kiya by taking some measures
Sumit: Expot chuda, import utha (C/A Deficit utha)
hmmm
den..
1995 mein lya kuch monetary measures
1:10 AM me: haan 95 me deficit 5 se 8 percent ho gaya tha
Sumit: of GDP?
me: haan
c/a deficit = 8% of gdp
Sumit: ohhhk so ab?
1:11 AM me: un measures ka kuch asar nahi hua...basically money supply ko kam karna chahti thi sarkar...liquidity aur credit ko bhi kam kar na chahti thi...
par monetary policy effective nahi hoti if fixed exchange rate and perfect capital mobility is there
Sumit: oohhhk
1:13 AM me: sarkar ne loan deposit ratio kam kar diya...par usse usi bank ko phadak padega jisko deposit nahi mil raha...jiske customers kam hai...pade bank me to paisa deposit hoga hi...no one holds cash...
Sumit: I know y, coz of imp trinity :D
1:15 AM me: dusri bat yeh hai ki...usually contractionary monetary policy me interest rate badhate hai
yahan interest rate to jyada tha hi
paisa mainly bahar se aa raha tha
Sumit: ohhhk
me: to basically sarkar kuch kar nahi payi
1:16 AM Sumit: ohhhk
me: ab jab current account deficit bahut ho jata hai...to logo ko lagta hai ki currency overvalued hai...
kyunki usse import sasta padta hai
Sumit: ohhhk speculation
1:18 AM kahan gaye? sutta maarne?
1:19 AM me: ek min
haan speculative attack
1:20 AM Sumit: den..
me: are sonu ko mail nahi mila tha
wo bhej raha tha
1:21 AM Sumit: ohhk
me: thailand ki sarkar ne currency defend karne ki koshish ki pehle
1:22 AM speculative attack me log baht ke badle apni currency mangte hai
Sumit: ohhk
me: jisse baht jyada ho jyada hai market me aur uski value kam
1:23 AM Sumit: ohhhk
me: uskko bachane ke liye central bank ko baht kharidna hoga foreign exchange deke
par kab tak
Sumit: ohhk forex reserve ki lagne lagi
me: tabhi tak jab tak uske pas foreign exchange hai
Sumit: so finally FERR toota?
me: haan pura forex deplete ho gaya
1:24 AM Sumit: Fixed exchange rate regime
me: uske bad currency float karna pada
haan
Sumit: gud :)
me: ye hua 2nd july ko
Sumit: 1997?
me: yes
Sumit: abe bankg or nonbankg outflowa ka kya funda hua tha?
1:25 AM me: ek bar jab baht apni asli aukat pe aa gaya logo ne paisa nikalna band kar diya
Sumit: ohhk
me: jo paisa nikal raha tha wo mainly short term loan me diya paisa tha
jinhone fdi kiya tha wo withdraw nahi kar rahe tha
*the
fdi ya portfolio
Sumit: ohhk
1:26 AM me: jo paisa BIBF ke jariye aya tha wahi nikal raha tha
wo bank category wala paisa tha
Sumit: ohhhk
me: jo commercial banks aur bibf ne bahar se loan leke thailand me loan diya tha
ok?
Sumit: hmmm
1:27 AM toh iska matlab dono kind of flows the.....banking (BIBF) ke zariye n Non banking portfolio ke zariye
lattter was v less
me: dekh jo capital inflow hota hai wo bahut tarike ka hota hai
1:28 AM main samjhata hu
Sumit: :) ohhhk
smjha :)
me: fdi ka matlab ho ta us country ke company ka 10% se jyada share kharidna
portfolio bhi equity investment hota hai
Sumit: ohhk
ohhk
me: ye sab non banking category me ata hai
isme bank involve nahi
Sumit: ohhhhk
hmmm
1:29 AM me: bank kab involve hota jab company loan leti hai
debt
Sumit: hmmm
me: jo commercial banks the unki subsidiary thi foreign me
wo sale wahan se paisa lete the aur yahan pe loan de dete the
Sumit: hmmm so...
ohhhk
1:30 AM me: to ye bank category ka capital flow hua
Sumit: hmm hua
me: ab jo fdi karega wo company ko chudne nahi dega
Sumit: ohhhk
me: wo aur capital layega comapny ko atleat bachane ke liye
wo owner hai
Sumit: hmmm
me: to crisis ke dauran ye log paisa nahi nikal rahe the
1:31 AM Sumit: ohhhk
bankg wale nikaal rahe the
?
me: paisa wo nikal rahe the jinhone ya to loan diya tha ya jinka chota stake tha company me
Sumit: hmmm
1:32 AM me: yani loan wale aur portfolio investment karne wale...
portfolio investment matlab jo share market me invest karte hai
Sumit: ohhhk
me: jaise india se paisa nikal rahe hai
FFI
FII
1:33 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: lekin chuki singapore aur hongko wale share market paisa laga bhi rahe the portfolio investment utna affect nahi hua tha
net me
kuch log gire hue share price ka fayda bhi uthana chahte hai
ye singapore aur hongkong wale the
Sumit: ohhhk
1:34 AM me: any doubts?
puch le
Sumit: nahi ab tak jitna mujhe samajh aaya non bankg n bankg ko leke is dat ki...
bankg hua bank related flow: which is generally loans
1:35 AM non bankg hua invested by foreigners direclty thru equity investment
rt?
me: haan
Sumit: equity investment was nt hit a lot coz it was bothways. bankg was hit more severely?
outflows mostly
1:36 AM n bankg mein mostly wo hot money wale log the
me: lekin ye laon me lafda kya hai...ki bank jo loan de rahi thi wo thai logo ke deposit se nahi tha...bank khud bahar loan le rahi thi aur yahan comapnies ko loan de rahi thi...
1:37 AM Sumit: who wanted to earn a lot out of high interest being offered by Thai banks (inhi logon se loan le rahi thi? )
me: dekh man le ki ek thai bank hai
uska ek branch india me hai
Sumit: k
me: india me interest rate hai loan ka 5%
aur thailand me 10%
1:38 AM Sumit: ohhhk so main ind mein loan leke usko bhej diya
me: to india wala branch kya karega ki indian bank loan le lega..
Sumit: hmm
me: aur usi paisa ko thailand ke logo ko loan pe de dega
Sumit: hmmm
me: ab india se loan mil raha tha wo short term tha
1:39 AM Sumit: hmmm
me: aur jo loan thailand me de rahi thi wo long term tha
Sumit: ohhhk
me: to ab jab indian bank loan chukane ko bol rahi thi...to capital outflow ho raha tha...
ye banking ctegory ka outflow hua
1:40 AM jab loan le ke paisa aya to inflow jab loan chukane ke liye paisa gaya to outflow
thik hai?
Sumit: hmmm
me: banking is alright now?
Sumit: samajh gaya
hmm
1:41 AM non banking toh direct equity investment ho gaya
me: non banking hota hai fdi, portfolio investment, supplier credit, trade credit etc
Sumit: okies
me: nahi trade credit aur ye sab bhi hota hai
Sumit: chalo ab aage badte hain..
ohhhk
me: jo thai log bahar kar kar rahe hai wo jo paisa bhej rahe hai wo bhi hoga
matlab non resident thai accounts
1:42 AM *reh
Sumit: 'hmmm
me: to mainly jo capital outflow ho raha tha wo banking tha
thik hai
Sumit: hmm thik hai
1:43 AM den FERR toot gaya
n eco stabilise kaise hui?
1:44 AM NPAs ko hataya gaya tha kuch toh
me: jab FERR nahi raha...aur log paisa nikalte gaye...to currency bhi girne lagi...is tarike currency reached its real value
Sumit: ohhk
me: jo actually uska exchange rate hona chahiye wo ho gay
it stabilised
Sumit: ohhk
me: sarkar ne bhi kuch measures liye
1:45 AM Sumit: bas khattam crisis? aur kuch bhi jaanna hai?
me: restructuring kiya financial sector...bail out kiya...
kahan gaye?
1:47 AM Sumit: hmm
1:48 AM ab iske baad toh eco analysis hi hai
?
me: haan
usme ja
fdi wale me ja
Sumit: ohhk
me: dekh export performance sab se imp factor aa raha hai usme
1:49 AM Sumit: hmmm
- ka sig kya hota tha?
1:50 AM me: aisa isliye hota hai usually agar koi company kisi bahar ke company me invest karti hai...bada stake kharidti hai...to uska main reason hota hai cheap labour,capital etc ka fayda uthana
dusre country me saste me produce karke apne country me import karna
Sumit: ohhhk
1:51 AM me: to export performance ek tarike se signal hota hai fdi ka
Sumit: exp value kya hua?
hmmm
me: export value matlab jitna export kiya
1:52 AM usually export wahi hota hai jahan se fdi ata hai
Sumit: ohhhk
me: to agar export nahi ho raha hai to fdi bhi nahi aa raha hai
Sumit: 3rd pt kya hai us slide mein?
me: kyunki fdi ka purpose hi hota hai dusre country me produe karna
at lower cost
1:53 AM Sumit: ohhk
me: chuki japan sabse major contributor tha fdi ka...to volatility against yen sabse imp factor hoga...as compared to other currencies...
1:54 AM dekh aaj main america me 100 rupees lagaya
that is say equal to 2 $
Sumit: k
me: us 2 $ pe mere ko 50 % return mil raha hai
Sumit: k
me: say 1 $ or 50 Rs
Sumit: hmm
1:55 AM me: ab $ gir gaya rs ke against
Sumit: oki
me: mere ko abhi bhi 2 $ aa raha hai
par uska rupee ke term me kam value hai
Sumit: oki
me: to volatility of currency affects foreign investment
Sumit: hmmm
1:56 AM me: any other thing in that slide?
Sumit: in dis case kya ho raha hai
ki jus volatity hai toh affect ho raha hai chk kar rahe hain
oi
oki*
1:57 AM me: dekh baht dollar ke sath pegged tha
ab dollar appreciate ho raha tha
Sumit: yeah
me: to baht bhi appreciate ho raha tha
Sumit: hmm bt nt in true sense
so overvalued ho gaya
so japan baht se deal nahi karna chahega
me: jab currency appreciate ho rahi hai to log aur invest karna chahenge...
1:58 AM Sumit: ohhk
me: nahi karna chahega
kyunki usko fayda hoga...agar aaj 5 baht mil raha jiska value 100 yen aur kal wahi 5 baht ka value 200 yen ho jata hai to main invest karna chahunga
1:59 AM lekin main aur chiz bhi dekhunga
Sumit: hmm
me: agar kal baht devalue ho gaya to
Sumit: hmmm
me: agar thailand ka foreign reserve deplete ho gay to
Sumit: ohhk
me: so an investor will think all that
Sumit: n dat is wat v r capturing thru dat variable?
me: to kis chiz ka kitna impact hai wo is econometric analysis se pata chalega
2:00 AM Sumit: oki
Port inv pe aa jate hain ab
me: usme ek facor foreign reseve bhi hai
Sumit: hmm
me: k
2:01 AM us analysis se pata chalta hai ki jo log stock market me invest kar rahe the unko sabse jyada thailand ke growth prospect se matlab tha
gdp growth rate
2:02 AM aur purane stock market performance se
Sumit: hmmm
bt usme tum Eco fundamental factors kyun likhe ho den?
me: aur sab se jyada chuki us wale invest kar rahe the...to baht ki dollar ke sath volatility bahut imp factor jo jata hai
2:03 AM baht appreciate karega to kam dollar milega
Sumit: these are groeth perfo indicators? (you used elec consumpn in last case)
me: depreciate karega to jyada dollar milega
isliye coefficient negative hai
Sumit: ek ek ek min
2:05 AM me: dono growth ke indicators hote hai
Sumit: baht apprec kiya toh jyada dollars US investors ko milega
me: u can use any
nahi kam dollar milega na
100 baht milna hai
2:06 AM pehle 1$ = 50 baht
so they will get 2$
now 1 $ = 25 baht
Sumit: ohh haan
me: so they will get 4 $
similarly the opposite
Sumit: ohhhk
2:07 AM hmm -ve kyun bol raha tha kyunki inv relationship hai?
2:08 AM me: yes
Sumit: bt yahan toh apan bas volatility bol rahe hain iske ye matlab thode hi hai ki..... When dollar increases baht increases means Baht per dollar volatitly)
2:09 AM me: see regression hamne 1998 tak ke data ko use karke kiya hai
1997 me floating ho gaya tha
Sumit: ohhk
me: to after 1997 that relation doesnt hold
Sumit: ohhk
2:10 AM me: to it will get reflected in regression
Sumit: k
me: is me aur kuch?
Sumit: 2nd pt?
2:11 AM me: yehi fayda hota hai regression karne ka
Sumit: The adequacy of foreign exchange reserves (in terms of import expenses) ...ye kaunsa var hai?
me: typically hame lagta hai ki foreign reserve har tarah ke invest ko affect karna chahiye
wo bhi barabar
par ye fdi me jyada significant hota hai
2:12 AM aisa regression show kar raha hai
foreign exchange reserve ko usually imports ke term me likhte hai
manle ki avg imp 100 $ hai sal ka country ka
aur reserve 1000$
2:13 AM to tu bolega ki reserve is sufficient for 10 months of import
aise hi express karte hai usually
Sumit: k
bt yaar koi variable toh denote kar raha hoga na? Forex ko
me: yes forex/import
2:14 AM see agar main sidha bolo ki mere pas 100$ forex hai to it doesnt make any sense
Sumit: 32 slide mein kahan hai wo?
me: agar ek din me main 100$ import kar raha hu to wo forex to ek din me khatam ho jayega
Sumit: arre wo samajh gaya jha bhai i thiink tu 33rd slide pe bol raha hai
2:15 AM me: are wo 32 slide me nahi hai kyunki wo top 5 factors me se nahi hai
Sumit: wait a sec....
2:16 AM 12 baje tak saath de do jab itna sahe ho toh :D
me: wahi to wo point bol raha hai
ki fdi ke liye wo bahut significant factor hai
but not fii
fii me uska koi role nahi hota
it is not among the top 5 imp factor that determines fii flow
k?
Sumit: dekho 32nd slide mein 2nd point is: The adequacy of foreign exchange reserves (in terms of import expenses) is not very meaningful to foreigners in the stock market as well as direct investment
ohhhk
sry
i wasnt gettin it
me: oh ok
2:17 AM Sumit: mujhe laga list ofvar exhaustive hai
chalo den 33rd ko
me: haan it means it is not an imp factor for both fdi and fii and hence not shown
k?
Sumit: hmm k
me: 33 now
Sumit: k\
me: isme kya batao bata?
Sumit: thik ha ye
2:18 AM swap rate bhul gaya, wo upar ke kisi slide mein tha ...
padd leta hun
me: swap rate net pe dekh ke thik se samjh le
2:19 AM Sumit: thnku hai :) ho jaayega
me: main bhi bahut ache se abhi nahi samjha paonga
derivative contract hota hai ek tarah ka
dekh le net pe?
Sumit: hmm dekh lunga
cho tum aaraam karo ab :)
me: thik hai
Sumit: samajh aa gaya poora PPT which mujeh nahi lag raha tha aayega :D
thnku
2:20 AM me: send the chat transcript to everyone for reference
Sumit: chalo den... ohhhk
me: so that everyone will be clear
k
Sumit: hmmm
me: tu bhej dega ya main bheju
gmail me store ho jata hai
Sumit: hmm bhej dunga
2:21 AM me: sonu ke mdi act pe bhej dena...usko mail mil nahi raha tha...i just sent the ppt on her mdi act
chal bye then
Sumit: oki bbye tc
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